Archive for January 11th, 2008

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M&A rumor fest

January 11, 2008

Someone is making a killing from these rumors:

Microsoft buying Yahoo

Yahoo/Microsoft bidding on eBay

Microsoft buying Logitech

Microsoft buying Limelight Networks

Google buying Yell   

What? No Apple buying Tivo rumors? 

But no one is really buying anything.

Well, okay, Bank of America did buy Countrywide (to save their previous investment).

Another one: IAC buying Flixster.

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Did Silicon Alley Insider repackage my predictions?

January 11, 2008

Looks that way!

My list:

1. An Apple subnotebook – it is time for a decent replacement for the erstwhile 12″ PowerBook: 90%.
2. 3G iPhone announcement – too early. Won’t happen until July: 25%.
3. iPhone 2 – too early. Review of cool features from 1.1.3 firmware updates will be it: 25%.
3a. New iPods – maybe with Wifi Sync?: 75%.
4. News about iPhone SDK – Duh!: 100%.
5. iTunes movie rentals – Duh!: 100%.
6. The future of DRM – with new partners introduced: 95%.
7. Jay-Z and Apple form record label – as likely as that budget PC with 50 cents: 0%.
8. New Cinema Display – not MacWorld caliber unless it has TV built-in: 15%.
9. The return of the Newton (aka Apple Tablet) – Steve doesn’t like Sculley projects: 0%.
10: AppleTV update: will have software tweaks and HD capability?: 50%.
11. Beatles (how did this fall of the radar?) – still no deal: 25%.
12. Blu-ray: Steve has heralded the death of optical media for storage and for distribution. The network is the storage and distribution: 0%.

Dan Frommer’s:

1) Blu-ray drives on Mac computers. When Apple updated its high-end Mac Pro line this week, they didn’t include Blu-ray drives in any of the models. These are the Macs that creative professionals who might actually need Blu-ray drives are likely to buy. So we think Apple won’t be adding Blu-ray to their Mac lineup next week.

2) iPhone Nanos. Apple’s six-month-old, $400 iPhone is still the phone to beat in the wireless business. Would Apple want to broaden its appeal even further with a smaller, cheaper phone — say, around $200? We have no doubt that Apple’s phone lineup will grow this year, including a faster, “3G” iPhone. But we don’t think you’ll hear about an iPhone nano on Tuesday.

3) A Mac tablet. We think an ultra-portable MacBook makes sense. Apple still hasn’t replaced the 12-inch PowerBook, and a thin, lightweight laptop with a real keyboard could sell well. The company’s multi-touch screen technology is compelling, but we’re not convinced that a touchscreen mobile device needs to be any bigger/more expensive than the iPhone/iPod touch.

4) Apple HDTVs. We’re big fans of using computer displays as bedroom TVs, whether through a video port and set-top box, or just playing digital movie files off a computer. And we think that’s as far as Apple needs to go with their LCD displays. There’s not much Steve Jobs could do to improve today’s HDTVs that would justify the Apple price premium. We think the company should — and will — focus on improving its Apple TV set-top box, which works with every TV, instead.

5) Jay-Z/Apple record label. This stupid rumor popped up last week, and makes absolutely no sense. Apple has no need for a label. It won’t happen.