I read the online version of the Seattle PI and the Times daily. The one thing that I observe is their unwavering loyalty and kid-gloves treatment towards Microsoft. In fact, in all the years I have been reading, I can’t recall many articles critical of Microsoft. Contrast that with the Merc or Chronicle which often take turns bashing Valley firms including Oracle, Apple, and Sun. Anyway, Brier Dudley takes a whack at predicting the tech happenings during 2007 and in a shocking turn finds everything comes up roses for Microsoft (with a caveat that he is not trying to be a hometown booster). Lol!
Vista will satisfy the pent-up demand for a more secure version of Windows, as long as Microsoft stays on its toes and quickly patches weak spots that fame-seeking hackers and security firms will inevitably find.
Well, Microsoft has a history of “staying on its toes” so this one should be in the bag.
Businesses in particular will want the premium version that encrypts files in case a laptop is stolen. It is hoped that Boeing has already put in its order.
What does CIO Magazine know: Vista adoption slow. They might adopt Vista eventually but it’s a forced move rather than a need based one: lag time in Vista adoption as users wait for applications to catch up to the new OS, companies will eventually have to make the switch to Vista no matter how painful it is.
Consumers will like the way Vista makes it easier to find stuff on a PC, handle digital media and connect to networks and devices.
Once users figure out the difference between Vista Basic, Home, Professional, Enterprise, Ultimate, Superfluous, and Wasteful.
Vista also is helping hardware companies build cool accessories, like touch-screen media centers and fancy new remote controls.
You heard it here first, folks: remote controls are the critical drivers of Vista sales.
Apple shaped the digital music player business with its well-designed, easy-to-use iPod, but its dominance will begin fading this year.
Because as Apple has shown in the past five years, they move slowly, do not recognize user needs and improve the iPod to meet those needs.
This isn’t because of Microsoft’s Zune, at least not the current version. The iPod is going to lose ground to new multifunction devices, especially phones that are getting as much music-storage capacity as low-end iPods.
New Zune will be the next iPod-killer, mobile phone UIs are amazing, and people want MP3 capability on their phones (hint: not).
Apple must see the writing on the wall, because it’s expected to unveil an iPod phone at the MacWorld conference next week in San Francisco. But the phone may be too expensive to be a hit — analysts are saying it will cost $599 to $649 for 4-gigabyte and 8-gigabyte models.
Predicting Apple’s doom from baseless rumors displays journalistic integrity, especially rumors that date back to 1999. Funnier still, Dudley uses one set of rumors to show that the iPod prices are too expensive to succeed while ignoring another set of rumors that claims the prices will be $249 and $499 for the 4Gb and 8Gb vaporware models. Apple doomed storyline must be maintained.
New players that take advantage of the flexibility, reliability and capacity of Flash memory cards will also put pressure on iPods, which can’t be upgraded with additional memory.
On new players with memory-card slots, you can add more capacity with a $30 card instead of having to pay $200 or more for a bigger iPod. Flash players will be even more attractive as the cards’ capacity goes up — 32-gigabyte Flash could come by the end of the year, and Samsung just announced that it’s working on terabyte chips.
As previously stated – Apple is so slow-footed that it will refuse to modify the iPod to use these “new technologies” including Samsung’s wonderul terabyte chip.
Another challenge to iPods will come from handheld devices that play music and video streamed over new wireless broadband networks operated by companies such as Clearwire and T-Mobile.
Clearwire? Is Dudley on drugs? From Techdirt:
Since the start of the year, it’s added about 130,000 subscribers, bringing the total to 188,000. And after bleeding away $200 million in the first nine months of the year, the company still has no timeline for profitability.
Clearwire is the new Metricom. And as for T-mobile, since rumors are considered as the real thing, how about this one: “T-Mobile’s Chief Executive Robert Dotson reportedly discussed “at some length about how Apple’s and T-Mobile’s visions seem to be aligned.”
Instead of sharing three songs at a time, you could plug the memory card into a friend’s player and upload your entire collection.
In your face, RIAA.
Next up on Dudley’s target: social networks. Little surprise, Microsoft is the winner there too.
But as those in the MySpace generation mature and tire of harassment from strangers and viruses on first-generation social networks, they’ll migrate to the next thing.
Two new social-networking options are Wallop, a service Microsoft is testing, and Vox, a San Francisco-based service that recently launched. They let users create limited social networks and fine-tune how broadly they share personal information online.
Next market: search and online apps.
Three factors are putting pressure on Google to be bold this year.
The biggest is the law of large numbers. Google’s share of the online ad market is getting so big that the company will have trouble sustaining its past growth rate.
Hmm, funnily enough, the law of large numbers doesn’t seem to hamper Dudley’s outlook on Microsoft.
Another factor is the challenge from Microsoft and Yahoo! Microsoft’s online ad system has been a disappointment, but it should get a boost this year as Vista and Office 2007 bring millions of people back into its orbit.
Though the connection between Vista & Office 2007 sales and ad center adoption is not entirely clear. Oh, maybe it’s because people will be so dazzled by Vista that they’ll start adopting MSN Ad services en masse. Or maybe Vista & Office 2007 has built-in hooks which will force businesses to use MSN Ad center to the detriment of others?
Evidently location based services will finally defeat the ten year old hype and become mainstream in 2007. And guess who will be dominant in that market? Wait for it. Wait. Yes, its Microsoft. Whew, that was close:
Microsoft’s pushing the envelope with its Live Search service. If you search for “pizza,” the top results are nearby pizza parlors.
Handheld computers, such as the Ultra-Mobile PC that Microsoft is promoting, and new automotive products will also use location data in creative new ways this year.
Wait. This entire thing was a joke!
If it gets to be too much, you may be grateful for another innovation Microsoft is delivering in 2007 — a new on-off button in Vista that gives you multiple ways to shut down your computer.
You got me, Brier Dudley.
Update: Doh! Brier, not Brian!
