Thinksecret’s super-secret sources

Turns out I was able to access some of Thinksecret super double secret “sources“. Let me demonstrate with TS’s latest “expose”:

Fresh iPhone details emerge as release grows closer

Yes, there is sense of urgency that sites like mine have created so it must be time for whatever it is that we claim is coming down the pipeline.

By Ryan Katz, Senior Editor

By Ryan Katz, Average skilled user of Google

December 15, 2006 – As Apple’s entry into the mobile phone market draws nearer each day, Think Secret sources have steadily been gleaning details of the device and its status.

Translation: I have been very busy using this:

Sources report that the iPhone will bs a GSM/EDGE (2.5G) phone and not a UMTS (3G) device. Apple’s decision to go with 2.5G lies in the technology’s advantages over 3G: physically smaller components and more reliable communication.

A Vnunet report from the wayback machine (well, okay, 3 weeks back): “Apple’s suppliers will make approximately 12 million phones during 2007, nine million GSM versions and three million 3G versions, a Taipei-based analyst revealed to vnunet.com, on condition of anonymity.” Note to vnunet: congratulations for getting a quote from that most reliable of sources (the anonymous one).

Mr. Katz continues:

Apple is also said to be courting as many GSM providers as possible across major markets in North America, Europe, and Asia in an attempt to maximize its initial opportunity in the mobile phone market. Sources say the iPhone’s price tag has been a particular point of discussion for Apple with providers, as the company would like to see the same price offered for the device across all carriers. In addition, Apple does not want to see carriers subsidize the cost of the iPhone to customers, bucking an industry trend.

Translation: Thank god Fortune doesn’t have its stories behind a paid firewall any more: “Apple seems uniquely positioned to convince consumers to pay a premium – not demand a discount – for wirelessly connected devices, thus changing the economics of the wireless industry.”

Well, I could be mistaken. Maybe Mr. Katz eschews MSM and only considers the blogosphere and especially Gigaom? Same difference: “What is surprising the speculation that Apple will sell these phones unlocked, allowing consumers to pop in their SIM cards and use it as a phone. In the US, that would mean getting a SIM card from either the Cingular or T-Mobile. If this is indeed true, and it is not clear if it is so, then Apple will be lending a helping hand to the mobile phone makers. You can buy unlocked phones in Europe, Asia and on the Internet”

Ladies & Gentlemen, I give you Ryan Katz, master marketer (seriously):

Apple’s pricing intentions lie in its desire to maintain the high level of perceived value iPods currently enjoy in consumer minds. Were carriers to subsidize a large percentage of the iPhone, the device itself would be reduced to more of a commodity.

Yes, Ryan, this lies counter to the usual Apple’s strategy of devaluing its brand image by employing less than stellar marketing and promotional efforts.

One source familiar with the iPhone explained that it is more accurate to think of the device as an iPod with phone capabilities, rather than a phone with iPod functionality. As such, appropriate iPhone pricing will be critical to protecting the iPod brand. Although less important, passing on the full price of the phone to consumers would also reap the added benefit for Apple of strengthening its negotiating position with carriers.

Just curious if this same source issued a widely circulated press release that was also picked up and reported by AppleInsider: “We believe that the music phone will be true to these statements and should be considered a music player that has phone capabilities rather than a phone with a built-in music player.”

Mr. Katz tries this search term on Google: “iphone 4GB and 8GB”. Result:

The iPhone will likely ship in two capacities, other sources say, packing 4GB or 8GB of NAND flash in the most likely scenario, identical to Apple’s mid-range and high-end iPod nano. Pricing for the iPhone will accordingly be higher than the similar iPod nano, although sources have not heard specific prices mentioned.

Maybe Morgan Stanley’s Rebecca F. Runkle’s source was Ryan Katz?:
“Citing unnamed sources, Runkle said the iPhone will cost $599 for a 4-gig model and $649 for an 8-gig one.”

Next, in a very clever double reporting source trick, Mr. Katz confirms the results of his web search by citing the original source of some other rumor. Brilliant!

Citing his own sources, Kevin Rose of Digg.com recently said on an episode of the Diggnation podcast that the iPhone will ship in a 4GB version for $249 and an 8GB version for $449, representing a $50 and $200 premium, respectively, over the iPod nano.

Back to wild ass speculation:

Meanwhile, it is growing increasingly unlikely that Apple will be ready to ship the iPhone at or around Macworld Expo San Francisco in January, despite word that some suppliers have already started delivering components for the iPhone to manufacturing.

Oh, magic ball, could ThinkSecret be referring to this report? RedHerring quotes UBS analyst Benjamin Reitzes: “The Mac maker has placed an order for 12 million iPhones to be built by a Taiwanese contract manufacturer, according to an analyst citing reports from Asia. Hon Hai Precision, whose customers include Apple, Cisco, Dell, Nokia, and Sony, has received the order, according to a Taiwan media report cited by UBS Investment Research.”

Back to Mr. Katz:

Some sources have also gone so far as to suggest that even an announcement may elude Expo, especially if it appears the phone will not be available in sufficient quantities until the second quarter.

Gee, I wonder if its the same source as in this article in SeekingAlpha: Prudential’s Jesse Tortora asserted that “the production ramp has already begun” in small quantities for an Apple slim phone to be available for sale late in the first quarter of next year, or early in the second quarter. Tortora expects a smartphone to follow 1-2 quarters later, “likely” in the third quarter.

Mr. Katz ends on a melodramatic note:

It should be noted that announcement and release dates are frequently subject to change, however, and neither is locked in at this point.

Translation: Its not “locked in” because no one effing knows and I can’t find any new information on the internets.

Note to the sarcastically challenged: the term internets refers to a joke.